Sports Betting: Invest in Packers’ Super Bowl Futures

September 17, 2019
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Last season, the Green Bay Packers tied for the 10th-highest opponents’ yards per pass attempt (YPPA) in the NFL. Although there’s a sample size of just two games, Green Bay has yielded 5.6 YPPA this season — tied for the fifth-fewest.

Despite Mike Pettine’s much-improved unit, sportsbooks have yet to adjust its Super Bowl futures (12-1) by much after a 2-0 start. In fact, it’s priced at roughly the same number that the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook handed them in April (14-1), and there are still books with those same odds.

Disconsider the Packers’ lack of movement in the futures market after two weeks. Spotting their value begins with gauging their odds versus the rest of the NFC.

The Saints’ (20-1) hopes of winning it all took a hit after Drew Brees’ thumb injury in Los Angeles on Sunday, and he’s expected to miss around six weeks, greatening Green Bay’s chances of earning a top-two seed come the playoffs.
Although the Rams (10-1) would appear to be the biggest beneficiary, Sean McVay’s team has been gifted with turnover luck in their two wins, guiding it to victories over the underachieving Panthers and a hampered New Orleans’ offense.

The Cowboys (12-1) are off to an undefeated start, and the Eagles (12-1) nearly escaped Atlanta with another victory despite receivers Alshon Jeffery (groin), DeSean Jackson (calf) and Dallas Goedert (calf) departing throughout. But their defenses aren’t as loaded as the Packers’, tying for the 10th- and 14th-most opponents’ yards per play (6.0, 6.4) over the first two weeks.

Green Bay is tied for the 12th-fewest opponents’ YPP (5.4) — paced by one of the premier front-sevens with defensive tackle Kenny Clark and linebackers Preston and Za’Darius Smith.

Their new-look safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage have also forced a pair of turnovers, and the unit has generated five total takeaways after only 15 last season.

On the flip side, the Packers’ have tallied the third-lowest YPP (4.3) in the NFL, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers has yet to find a rhythm in first-year coach Matt LaFleur’s system. But considering Green Bay has withstood those issues en route to its hot start, its long-term offensive potential with one of the game’s premier signal callers creates even more value.

After racking up wins over the Bears and Vikings, the Packers play four of their next five games at home (Broncos, Eagles, at Cowboys, Lions, Raiders), creating more of an opportunity to build on their success. Grab their current price before it takes another dip.